Beijing – The autonomous driving industry is facing a reckoning as the viability of LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) as a core technology comes into question. Once hailed as essential for achieving full autonomy, LiDAR is now facing challenges from alternative technologies and shifting strategies from key customers, impacting the financial health of LiDAR manufacturers.
The LiDAR market is currently dominated by two key players, Hesai Technology and RoboSense. However, recent developments suggest that the future may not be as bright as initially anticipated.
The Rise of Vision-Based Systems
One of the most significant threats to LiDAR’s dominance comes from the rise of pure vision-based autonomous driving systems, championed by companies like Tesla and increasingly adopted by others, including Xpeng. These systems rely solely on cameras and advanced software to perceive the environment, offering a potentially cheaper and more scalable alternative to LiDAR.
Customer Dependence and Order Cancellations
This technological shift has exposed a critical vulnerability in the LiDAR business model: over-reliance on a few major customers. When these customers change their technology roadmap or cancel orders, the impact on LiDAR companies can be immediate and severe.
RoboSense, a leading LiDAR manufacturer, recently released its Q1 financial report, revealing a concerning trend. The company’s total LiDAR product deliveries in Q1 2024 reached 108,600 units, a 9.8% year-on-year decrease and a 33% quarter-on-quarter drop. This marks the first time in a year that RoboSense has experienced a decline in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter deliveries.
The decline was primarily driven by a 16.8% decrease in ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems) LiDAR deliveries, which fell to 96,700 units in Q1. RoboSense attributed this drop to the cancellation of orders from a major OEM customer who chose to partner with their own strategic Tier 1 supplier. While the specific customer was not named, it highlights the risk of relying on a limited number of clients. Industry observers speculate that the OEM in question may be AITO (a brand under Seres Group) which switched to Huawei as its primary supplier.
Robotics Sector Offers a Silver Lining
Despite the challenges in the automotive sector, RoboSense saw significant growth in its robotics and other applications segment. Deliveries in this area surged by 183.3% year-on-year, reaching 11,900 units in Q1 2024, up from 4,200 units in the same period last year. This growth suggests that LiDAR may find a more stable market in robotics and other non-automotive applications.
Financial Impact
The decline in overall deliveries has had a direct impact on RoboSense’s revenue. In Q1 2024, the company’s total revenue was 328 million yuan, a 9.1% decrease year-on-year. Product sales revenue, which accounts for 92.2% of the total revenue, fell by 12.4% to 302 million yuan. Revenue from LiDAR for ADAS applications was 229 million yuan, a 25% decrease year-on-year, representing 69% of the company’s total revenue.
Conclusion
The LiDAR market is at a crossroads. While the technology still holds promise for certain applications, the rise of vision-based systems and the risk of customer dependence pose significant challenges. LiDAR companies need to diversify their customer base, explore new applications, and potentially adapt their technology to remain competitive in the evolving autonomous driving landscape. The question of whether LiDAR is a good business remains open, and the answer will depend on the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of these challenges.
References
- 36Kr. (2024, June 9). 激光雷达是门好生意吗？问界换华为，小鹏改视觉，头雁10%订单说没就没 [Is LiDAR a Good Business? AITO Switches to Huawei, Xpeng Changes to Vision, 10% of Head雁’s Orders Disappear]. Retrieved from [Insert original article URL here]
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