OpenAI的首席运营官布拉德·莱特卡普在最近的行业讨论中表示，尽管人工智能（AI）的颠覆性潜力巨大，但其短期对生产力的提升可能被外界过高估计。莱特卡普认为，现在判断AI是否能立即促进生产力增长还为时尚早，他将重塑经济比喻为“一项艰巨的任务”，认为这不太可能在短短一年内实现。
莱特卡普强调，即便OpenAI停止当前的研发工作，仅凭已经存在的GPT-4级别技术，也足以在未来10到20年内对全球经济产生深远影响。他的观点在场得到了其他AI公司高管的共鸣，他们一致认为，AI技术具有长期的颠覆性潜力，其影响力将在长期内逐步显现。
这一观点反映了AI行业对于技术成熟度与影响周期的深入理解，同时也提醒公众和企业界，对于AI的期待应更加理性，注重长期规划和持续发展。随着AI技术的不断进步，其对社会经济结构的深远变革将在未来数十年内逐步展开，而非一蹴而就。
英语如下：
News Title: “OpenAI Executive: AI’s Short-Term Impact Overestimated, Long-Term Disruptive Potential Undeniable”
Keywords: AI Potential, Long-Term Impact, GPT-4
News Content: Brad Wrightcap, the Chief Operating Officer of OpenAI, recently stated in an industry discussion that while artificial intelligence (AI) possesses significant disruptive potential, its short-term boost to productivity might be overestimated by outsiders. Wrightcap believes it is premature to determine whether AI will immediately fuel productivity gains, likening the transformation of the economy to “a massive undertaking” that is unlikely to occur within a single year.
Wrightcap emphasized that even if OpenAI were to halt its current research, the existing GPT-4 level technology alone would be sufficient to have a profound impact on the global economy over the next 10 to 20 years. His perspective resonated with other AI company executives, who collectively agreed that AI technology has long-term disruptive potential, with its influence unfolding gradually over time.
This viewpoint reflects a deep understanding within the AI industry of the maturation process and the timeline of impact, serving as a reminder to the public and business sectors to approach AI with more rational expectations, focusing on long-term planning and sustained development. As AI technology advances, the profound transformation it will bring to socioeconomic structures will unfold incrementally over decades, rather than happening all at once.
【来源】https://www.cls.cn/detail/1673731
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