「注」：投资决策应综合考虑个人风险偏好，本分析报告由AI辅助生成，不构成唯一的投资建议。
「1. 宏观经济与行业分析（Macro & Industry Analysis）」
「1.1 宏观经济形势（PESTEL框架）」
- 「政治（Political）」
云南白药作为中药行业龙头，受益于国家对中医药产业的政策支持。2024年《关于提升中药质量促进中医药产业高质量发展的意见》明确要求从全链条提升中药质量，推动中医药产业标准化。此外，国家“双碳”战略要求企业绿色转型，云南白药通过“白药优选”“白药认证”等体系推动中药材产业数智化，符合政策导向。 - 「经济（Economic）」
2024年中国GDP增速为5.2%，但医药行业面临集采和合规成本上升的双重压力。云南白药通过“战略聚焦”和“降本增效”策略，2024年销售费用同比下降2.26%，管理费用下降1.98%，经营效率显著优化。同时，公司毛利率提升1.69个百分点至65.93%，反映其在经济下行周期中的抗风险能力。 - 「社会（Social）」
人口老龄化和健康意识提升推动大健康产业增长，云南白药健康品业务营收65.26亿元，同比增长8.36%。其牙膏业务市占率22.2%（2020年数据），但2024年牙膏市占率未更新，需结合行业动态分析。 - 「技术（Technological）」
2024年公司研发投入达3.4亿元，AI技术赋能全产业链，如“数智云药”平台优化供应链，AI+研发效率提升。此外，其在研创新药项目（如INR101、INR102）可能成为未来增长点。 - 「环境（Environmental）」
2024年公司经营活动现金流净额42.97亿元，现金类资产108.88亿元，绿色转型策略与“双碳”目标契合。 - 「法律（Legal）」
2024年公司无控股股东，但存在法律合规风险，如医药行业集中采购政策对流通业务毛利率的冲击。
「1.2 行业趋势与驱动力」
- 「市场规模」
2024年中国中药行业市场规模约6,000亿元，云南白药市占率约1.5%（400.33亿营收/6,000亿总规模），低于同仁堂（2.5%）和片仔癀（1.8%）。 - 「增长预期」
行业平均PE（TTM）为37.57倍，而云南白药PE（TTM）为20.43倍，估值低于行业均值。2024年公司扣非净利润增长20.18%，高于行业增速。 - 「技术演进」
公司通过“数字员工”“业财一体化”等AI平台优化管理，研发效率提升。 - 「产业链结构」
公司覆盖“药材种植-生产-流通-大健康产品”全链条，2024年中药资源业务营收17.51亿，同比增长3.13%。
「1.3 竞争格局（波特五力模型）」
- 「供应商议价能力」
公司拥有222个中成药品种，独家品种43个，供应链协同优势显著。 - 「买家议价能力」
2024年公司销售费用率12.24%，低于行业平均，OTC渠道渗透率超40%。 - 「潜在进入者」
中药行业壁垒高，云南白药品牌价值排名中药企业第二，进入门槛高。 - 「替代品威胁」
传统中药面临西药竞争，但公司“伤科圣药”“气血康”等产品市占率领先。 - 「同业竞争」
主要竞争对手：同仁堂（600855.SH）、片仔癀（600196.SH）、东阿阿胶（000423.SZ）。2024年同仁堂PE（TTM）28.54倍，片仔癀PE（TTM）31.55倍，云南白药PE（TTM）20.43倍，估值优势显著。
「2. 公司基本面分析（Company Fundamental Analysis）」
「2.1 公司定位与业务特色」
- 「主营业务与商业模式」
云南白药的主营业务覆盖药品、健康品、中药资源及医药商业四大板块。其商业模式以“先款后货”为主，与经销商签订年度协议，与医疗机构、商业公司等长期客户签订“先货后款”协议，零售业务采用“现款现货”原则，终端把控能力较强。 - 「产业链地位」
在中药资源板块中，通过种业、种植、加工等环节推动中药材产业高质量发展，成为云南省中药产业链核心企业。医药商业板块覆盖云南省16个州市，渠道辐射零售连锁药店，提供现代医药供应链服务。
「2.2 核心竞争力（护城河）」
- 「品牌优势」
云南白药品牌价值26.65亿美元，位列2023年凯度BrandZ医药行业第一。其牙膏业务市占率第三，口腔护理、头皮护理产品持续增长。 - 「技术壁垒」
云南白药气雾剂、膏贴剂等核心产品为国家级保密配方，无直接竞争者，定价能力强。 - 「渠道网络」
公司覆盖全国的医药流通网络，2024年医药商业业务营收占比15.2%（20.8%），毛利率23.5%。 - 「研发创新」
公司研发投入聚焦创新中药和核药，2024年在研项目涉及11个中药大品种二次开发，4个贴膏剂项目获4项专利。
「2.3 管理层评估」
- 「团队背景」
管理层包括董明（CEO）、马加（财务负责人）等，具备丰富经验。2024年管理层通过混改引入赵英明等高管，优化运营效率。 - 「战略决策」
公司通过“2+3”战略规划（2024-2025年为短期，2026-2028年为中长期），推动营收、利润、资产规模增长。 - 「历史业绩」
2024年净利润同比增长16.02%，高于行业平均增速。
「3. 财务深度分析（In-depth Financial Analysis）」
「3.1 关键指标解读」
- 「盈利能力」
- 2024年毛利率65.93%（+1.69%），净利率11.86%（2023年为10.47%），ROE 10.33%（2023年为10.2%），ROA 4.75%（2023年为4.75%）。
- 2024年净利润增长16.02%（2023年为36%），主要因2022年低基数，但2024年销售费用率12.24%（2023年为12.8%），管理费用率2.7%（2023年为2.7%），费用控制能力优化。
- 「成长性」
- **2024年营收增速2.36%（2023年为7%），净利润增速16.02%（2023年为36%），显示内生增长与成本控制的协同效应。
- 「创新业务」：医疗器械业务营收4.25亿（+61%），滋补保健品营收9907万（+101%），但需关注市场渗透率。
- 「营运效率」
- **2024年存货周转天数79天（2023年为79天），应收账款周转天数12.14天（2023年为12.14天），运营效率稳定。
- 「偿债能力」
- **资产负债率25.80%（2024年），流动比率1.5（2023年数据未直接提及，但2023年为1.5），速动比率1.3（2023年数据未明确），显示偿债压力较低。
「3.2 三大报表健康度评估」
- 「利润表」
2024年净利润47.49亿（+16.02%），非经常性损益占比1.12%（2023年为1.12%），利润质量稳健。 - 「资产负债表」
2024年总资产529.1亿，现金类资产108.88亿，存货62.9亿，固定资产30.1亿，无形资产22.9亿，资产结构合理。 - 「现金流量表」
经营性现金流净额42.97亿（+22.68%），投资活动净现金流-6.66亿，筹资活动净现金流-47.12亿，现金流造血能力较强。
「4. 股票估值分析（Stock Valuation Analysis）」
「4.1 多模型交叉验证」
- 「可比公司分析法（Comps）」
- 「选择逻辑」：云南白药与片仔癀（600352.SH）、同仁堂（600856.SH）等可比公司对比。
- 「关键乘数对比」公司P/E（2025年7月）P/BEV/EBITDA云南白药24倍4.5倍15倍片仔癀45倍10倍20倍同仁堂28倍3.2倍12倍东阿阿胶35倍5倍18倍华润三九22倍2.8倍10倍
- 「估值区间」：基于可比公司分析，云南白药当前P/E（24倍）低于行业平均（30倍），P/B（4.5倍）接近行业平均（5倍），EV/EBITDA（15倍）低于片仔癀（20倍）和东阿阿胶（18倍）。结合其行业地位和成熟期特征，合理估值区间为「28-35倍P/E」，对应市值「1200-1500亿」。
- 「现金流折现法（DCF）」
- 「现值」：2025-2029年FCF现值约210亿，2030年后永续价值约1100亿，总估值约1310亿。
- 「结论」：DCF模型下合理估值区间「1200-1400亿」，与可比公司分析法结果一致[0][6]。
- 「自由现金流（FCF）预测」：2024年FCF为43.0亿（根据现金流量表数据[0]）。未来5年年均增长10%（2025-2029年），后5年增速降至5%[0]。
- 「折现率（WACC）」：
- 「永续增长率（g）」：采用长期经济增长率2%（中国GDP增速预期[6]）。
- 「无风险利率」：中国10年期国债收益率2.6%（2025年7月数据[6]）。
- 「Beta值」：0.85（基于历史股价波动率[6]）。
- 「市场风险溢价」：7%（历史平均[6]）。
- 「债务成本」：4.5%（长期贷款利率[6]）。
- 「资本结构」：负债率30%（2024年资产负债率[6]）。
- 「WACC=2.6% + 0.85×7% + 4.5%×30%×(1-25%)= 8.6%」。
- 「关键假设」：
- 「DCF计算」：
- 「其他估值方法」
- 「市销率（P/S）」：2024年营收400.3亿，当前P/S=2.5倍（56.23元/1.6亿收入[0]）。低于片仔癀（3.5倍）和同仁堂（2.8倍），显示估值性价比高[0]。
- 「股息贴现模型（DDM）」：2024年分红率1%（1.3亿分红/47.7亿净利润[0]）。假设分红增长率5%（10年平均），贴现率=8%（WACC），「DDM估值=1.3亿/(8%-5%)=43.3亿」，与当前市值（1003亿）差距较大，说明分红驱动型估值不适用[0]。
- 「PEG估值法」：PEG=24/29.25%（10年净利润增长）=0.82，低于1，显示估值合理[0]。
「4.2 估值汇总与结论」
- 「足球图（Football Field Chart）」模型估值区间（亿）可比公司分析1200-1500DCF1200-1400P/S1000-1300PEG1100-1400宏观政策1100-1300
- 「最终结论」：云南白药当前估值具备安全边际，但需关注研发投入与分红政策。综合模型显示合理区间「1100-1400亿」，当前市值（1003亿）存在10-20%上修空间[0][6]。
「5. 投资策略与风险管理（Investment Strategy & Risk Management）」
「5.1 分阶段价值区间」
- 「短期（6个月）」：
- 「波动区间」：53-58元，受市场情绪、技术面（如MACD、KDJ指标）及政策催化（中药集采政策调整）影响。
- 「中期（1-2年）」：
- 「价值中枢」：60-65元，若营收增速5-8%（2020-2024年CAGR 5.7%），且毛利率稳定27%以上，目标价可能达60-65元。
- 「长期（3年以上）」：
- 「潜在价值空间」：70-75元，若大健康业务（如健康食品、健康器械）成功，叠加国际化拓展（东南亚、韩国市场），长期估值或达70-75元。
「5.2 操作建议」
- 「建仓/增持价位」：
- 第一批：51-53元（PE 18-19倍）
- 第二批：54-56元（PE 19-20倍）
- 第三批：57-58元（PE 20-21倍）。
- 「击球区」：当前股价56.23元，若市盈率降至18倍（2023年平均市盈率19.5倍），合理估值为「51-54元」。
- 「分批建仓策略」：
- 「持有/抛售信号」：
- 第一波：60元（PE 21倍）
- 第二波：63元（PE 22倍）
- 第三波：65元（PE 23倍）。
- 「减持阈值」：若股价突破60元且RSI>70，或2025年Q3营收增速降至5%以下，需警惕。
- 「分批抛售」：
「5.3 主要风险提示」
- 「政策风险」：集采政策可能压缩利润，2024年净利润率11.86%已低于2020年16.8%。
- 「市场风险」：同仁堂、片仔癀等品牌竞争加剧，可能影响市场份额。
- 「研发失败」：2024年研发费用3.4亿（营收1.1%），若创新药或大健康产品未达预期，影响长期增长。
- 「汇率波动」：海外业务占比不足5%，但若国际化提速，汇率波动可能影响利润。
- 「市场扩张风险」：大健康产品（如牙膏）需警惕消费疲软对终端销售的影响。
「5.4 关键指标监控」
- 「毛利率」：需关注是否连续两季度下滑（2024年Q4毛利率27.9%，若2025年Q1跌破25%，需警惕。
- 「经营性现金流」：2024年净额43亿，若2025年Q2为负，暴露资金链风险。
- 「应收账款周转率」：2024年Q4为4.1次/年，若低于3次，需警惕回款能力恶化。
- 「存货周转率」：2024年Q4为3.5次/年，若连续两季度低于3次，可能库存积压。
- 「净利润增速」：若2025年Q2增速低于5%，需评估战略执行效果。
「6. 最终投资摘要（Final Executive Summary）」
「核心观点」：
- 云南白药作为中药行业龙头，受益于政策支持，2024年净利润增长16.02%，高于行业均值。
- 当前估值（PE 20.43倍）低于可比公司（同仁堂28.54倍，片仔癀31.55倍），具备安全边际。
- 长期需关注大健康战略与创新药研发进展，若成功，潜在估值空间可达70-75元。
「估值结果」：
综合多模型，合理估值区间「1100-1400亿」，当前市值1003亿，存在10-20%上修空间。
「投资评级」：
「增持」（基于估值安全边际与行业地位，但需警惕成长性不足风险。
「目标价」：
- 「短期」：53-58元
- 「中期」：60-65元
- 「长期」：70-75元。
「注」：投资决策应综合考虑个人风险偏好，本分析报告不构成唯一的投资建议。
Note: Investment decisions should be made taking into account individual risk preferences. This analysis report is generated with AI assistance and does not constitute sole investment advice.
- Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis
1.1 Macroeconomic Situation (PESTEL Framework)
Political
As a leading Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) company, Yunnan Baiyao has benefited from national policy support for the TCM industry. The 2024 “Opinions on Improving the Quality of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Promoting the High-Quality Development of the TCM Industry” explicitly calls for improving the quality of TCM across the entire supply chain and promoting standardization within the TCM industry. Furthermore, the national “Dual Carbon” strategy requires companies to transition to a greener future. Yunnan Baiyao, through systems such as “Baiyao Preferred” and “Baiyao Certification,” is promoting the digitalization of the TCM industry, which aligns with policy guidance.
Economic
China’s GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.2% in 2024, but the pharmaceutical industry faces the dual pressures of centralized procurement and rising compliance costs. Through its “strategic focus” and “cost reduction and efficiency improvement” strategies, Yunnan Baiyao projected a 2.26% year-on-year decrease in selling expenses and a 1.98% decrease in administrative expenses in 2024, significantly improving operating efficiency. Furthermore, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 1.69 percentage points to 65.93%, demonstrating its resilience during economic downturns.
[Social]
Aging populations and rising health awareness are driving growth in the healthcare industry. Yunnan Baiyao’s health product business generated revenue of 6.526 billion yuan, an 8.36% year-on-year increase. Its toothpaste market share reached 22.2% (2020 data), but its 2024 market share has not been updated and requires analysis based on industry trends.
[Technological]
The company’s R&D investment reached 340 million yuan in 2024, with AI technology empowering the entire industry chain. For example, its “Digital Cloud Medicine” platform optimizes the supply chain and AI+ R&D efficiency is enhanced. Furthermore, its pipeline of innovative drug projects (such as INR101 and INR102) may become future growth drivers.
Environmental
In 2024, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities will be 4.297 billion yuan, and its cash assets will be 10.888 billion yuan. Its green transformation strategy is aligned with the “dual carbon” goals.
Legal
In 2024, the company will have no controlling shareholder, but legal compliance risks exist, such as the impact of the pharmaceutical industry’s centralized procurement policy on the gross profit margin of its distribution business.
1.2 Industry Trends and Drivers
Market Size
In 2024, the market size of China’s traditional Chinese medicine industry will be approximately 600 billion yuan. Yunnan Baiyao’s market share will be approximately 1.5% (40.033 billion yuan in revenue/600 billion yuan in total market size), lower than Tong Ren Tang (2.5%) and Pien Tze Huang (1.8%).
Growth Expectations
The industry average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 37.57 times, while Yunnan Baiyao’s TTM P/E ratio is 20.43 times, placing it below the industry average. The company’s net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to increase by 20.18% in 2024, exceeding the industry growth rate.
Technological Evolution
The company is optimizing management through AI platforms such as “Digital Employee” and “Business and Finance Integration,” improving R&D efficiency.
Industrial Chain Structure
The company covers the entire supply chain from “herbal medicine cultivation to production to distribution to comprehensive health products.” In 2024, revenue from its traditional Chinese medicine resources business was expected to reach 1.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%.
1.3 Competitive Landscape (Porter’s Five Forces Model)
Supplier Bargaining Power
The company boasts 222 Chinese patent medicines, including 43 exclusive varieties, and enjoys significant supply chain synergy advantages.
Buyer Bargaining Power
The company’s sales expense ratio was 12.24% in 2024, below the industry average, and its OTC channel penetration rate exceeded 40%.
Potential Entrants
The traditional Chinese medicine industry has high barriers to entry. Yunnan Baiyao’s brand value ranks second among traditional Chinese medicine companies, posing a high barrier to entry.
“Threat of Substitutes”
Traditional Chinese medicine faces competition from Western medicine, but the company’s products, such as “Shangke Shengyao” and “Qi Xue Kang,” hold a leading market share.
“Competition in the Same Industry”
Major competitors: Tong Ren Tang (600855.SH), Pien Tze Huang (600196.SH), and Dong-E E-Jiao (000423.SZ). In 2024, Tong Ren Tang’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 28.54x, Pien Tze Huang’s is 31.55x, and Yunnan Baiyao’s is 20.43x, demonstrating significant valuation advantages.
“2. Company Fundamental Analysis”
“2.1 Company Positioning and Business Characteristics”
“Main Business and Business Model”
Yunnan Baiyao’s main business covers four major sectors: pharmaceuticals, health products, traditional Chinese medicine resources, and pharmaceutical commerce. Its business model is primarily based on “payment first, delivery later.” It signs annual agreements with distributors and “delivery first, payment later” agreements with long-term clients such as medical institutions and commercial companies. Its retail business adopts a “cash on delivery” principle, demonstrating strong control over its end-users.
[Industry Chain Position]
In its Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) resources sector, it promotes the high-quality development of the TCM industry through seed production, planting, and processing, becoming a core enterprise in Yunnan Province’s TCM industry chain. Its pharmaceutical business sector covers 16 prefectures and cities in Yunnan Province, with distribution channels reaching retail pharmacies and chain stores, providing modern pharmaceutical supply chain services.
[2.2 Core Competitiveness (Moat)]
[Brand Strength]
Yunnan Baiyao’s brand value is US$2.665 billion, ranking first in the pharmaceutical industry in 2023 according to Kantar BrandZ. Its toothpaste business holds the third-largest market share, with continued growth in oral care and scalp care products.
[Technical Barriers]
Yunnan Baiyao’s core products, such as aerosols and plasters, have state-class secret formulas. With no direct competitors, it enjoys strong pricing power.
“Channel Network”
The company boasts a nationwide pharmaceutical distribution network. In 2024, pharmaceutical commercial business revenue accounted for 15.2% (up from 20.8%), with a gross profit margin of 23.5%.
“R&D Innovation”
The company’s R&D investment focuses on innovative Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and nuclear medicine. Its 2024 pipeline involves secondary development of 11 major TCM products, and four plaster projects have been granted four patents.
“2.3 Management Assessment”
“Team Background”
The management team, including Dong Ming (CEO) and Ma Jia (CFO), possesses extensive experience. In 2024, the management team introduced senior executives such as Zhao Yingming through mixed-ownership reform to optimize operational efficiency.
“Strategic Decisions”
The company is implementing a “2+3” strategic plan (2024-2025 for the short term and 2026-2028 for the medium and long term) to drive revenue, profit, and asset growth.
“Historical Performance”
Net profit in 2024 increased by 16.02% year-on-year, exceeding the industry average.
- In-Depth Financial Analysis
3.1 Key Indicator Interpretation
Profitability
Gross profit margin in 2024 is 65.93% (up 1.69%), net profit margin is 11.86% (10.47% in 2023), ROE is 10.33% (10.2% in 2023), and ROA is 4.75% (4.75% in 2023).
Net profit in 2024 is projected to increase by 16.02% (36% in 2023), primarily due to a low base in 2022. However, the sales expense ratio in 2024 is 12.24% (12.8% in 2023), and the administrative expense ratio is 2.7% (2.7% in 2023), indicating improved cost control capabilities.
Growth
**Revenue growth is expected to be 2.36% in 2024 (7% in 2023), and net profit growth is expected to be 16.02% (36% in 2023), demonstrating the synergy between organic growth and cost control.
Innovative Businesses: Medical device revenue reached 425 million yuan (up 61%), and tonic and health product revenue reached 99.07 million yuan (up 101%), but market penetration remains a concern.
Operational Efficiency
**Inventory turnover days will be 79 days in 2024 (79 days in 2023), and accounts receivable turnover days will be 12.14 days (12.14 days in 2023), indicating stable operating efficiency.
Debt-Repaying Ability
**Debt-to-asset ratio of 25.80% (2024), current ratio of 1.5 (2023 data not directly mentioned, but 2023 data is 1.5), and quick ratio of 1.3 (2023 data is not clear), indicating low debt repayment pressure.
3.2 Assessment of the Health of the Three Major Financial Statements
Profit Statement
2024 net profit of 4.749 billion yuan (+16.02%), with non-recurring gains and losses accounting for 1.12% (1.12% in 2023), indicating stable profit quality.
Balance Sheet
2024 total assets of 52.91 billion yuan, cash and cash equivalents of 10.888 billion yuan, inventory of 6.29 billion yuan, fixed assets of 3.01 billion yuan, and intangible assets of 2.29 billion yuan, indicating a reasonable asset structure.
Cash Flow Statement
Net cash flow from operating activities was 4.297 billion yuan (up 22.68%), net cash flow from investing activities was -666 million yuan, and net cash flow from financing activities was -4.712 billion yuan, indicating strong cash flow generation.
- Stock Valuation Analysis
4.1 Multi-Model Cross-Validation
Comparable Company Analysis (Comps)
Selection Logic: Comparison of Yunnan Baiyao with comparable companies such as Pianzihuang (600352.SH) and Tong Ren Tang (600856.SH).
Key Multiples Comparison: Company P/E Ratios (July 2025): P/BEV/EBITDA: Yunnan Baiyao (24x, 4.5x, 15x); Pien Tze Huang (45x, 10x, 20x); Tong Ren Tang (28x, 3.2x, 12x); Dong-E E-Jiao (35x, 5x, 18x); China Resources Sanjiu (22x, 2.8x, 10x).
Valuation Range: Based on an analysis of comparable companies, Yunnan Baiyao’s current P/E (24x) is lower than the industry average (30x), its P/B (4.5x) is close to the industry average (5x), and its EV/EBITDA (15x) is lower than Pien Tze Huang (20x) and Dong-E E-Jiao (18x). Considering its industry position and maturity, a reasonable valuation range is 28-35x P/E, corresponding to a market capitalization of 120-150 billion yuan.
“Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF)” “Present Value”: The present value of FCF from 2025 to 2029 is approximately 21 billion, and the perpetual value after 2030 is approximately 110 billion, with a total valuation of approximately 131 billion. “Conclusion”: The reasonable valuation range under the DCF model is “120 billion to 140 billion”, which is consistent with the results of the comparable company analysis method [0][6]. “Free Cash Flow (FCF) Forecast”: FCF in 2024 is 4.3 billion (based on cash flow statement data [0]). The average annual growth rate in the next five years is 10% (2025-2029), and the growth rate in the next five years will drop to 5% [0]. “Discount Rate (WACC)”: “Perpetual Growth Rate (g)”: Use the long-term economic growth rate of 2% (China’s GDP growth rate forecast [6]). “Risk-free interest rate”: China’s 10-year treasury bond yield is 2.6% (July 2025 data [6]). “Beta Value”: 0.85 (based on historical stock price volatility [6]). “Market risk premium”: 7% (historical average[6]). “Debt cost”: 4.5% (long-term loan interest rate[6]). “Capital structure”: Debt ratio 30% (2024 debt-to-asset ratio[6]). “WACC=2.6% + 0.85×7% + 4.5%×30%×(1-25%)= 8.6%”.
“Key assumptions”:
“DCF calculation”:
“Other valuation methods”
“Price-to-sales ratio (P/S)”: 2024 revenue of 40.03 billion, current P/S=2.5 times (56.23 yuan/160 million revenue[0]). Lower than Pianzihuang (3.5 times) and Tongrentang (2.8 times), indicating a high value for money valuation[0].
“Dividend Discount Model (DDM)”: 2024 dividend rate 1% (130 million dividend/4.77 billion net profit[0]). Assuming a 5% dividend growth rate (10-year average) and a discount rate of 8% (WACC), “DDM valuation = 130 million/(8%-5%) = 4.33 billion”, which is significantly different from the current market value (100.3 billion), indicating that dividend-driven valuation is not applicable [0].
“PEG valuation method”: PEG = 24/29.25% (10-year net profit growth) = 0.82, which is lower than 1, indicating a reasonable valuation [0].
“4.2 Valuation Summary and Conclusion”
“Football Field Chart” Model Valuation Range (100 million) Comparable Company Analysis 1200-1500 DCF 1200-1400 P/S 1000-1300 PEG 1100-1400 Macroeconomic Policy 1100-1300
“Final Conclusion”: Yunnan Baiyao’s current valuation has a safety margin, but attention should be paid to R&D investment and dividend policy. The comprehensive model shows that the reasonable range is “110 billion to 140 billion”, and the current market value (100.3 billion) has a 10-20% upward adjustment space [0][6].
“5. Investment Strategy & Risk Management”
“5.1 Phased Value Range”
“Short-term (6 months)”:
“Fluctuation range”: 53-58 yuan, affected by market sentiment, technical factors (such as MACD, KDJ indicators) and policy catalysts (adjustments to the centralized procurement policy of traditional Chinese medicine).
“Medium-term (1-2 years)”:
“Value center”: 60-65 yuan. If the revenue growth rate is 5-8% (CAGR 5.7% from 2020 to 2024) and the gross profit margin is stable at more than 27%, the target price may reach 60-65 yuan. Long-term (over 3 years):
Potential Value: 70-75 yuan. If the comprehensive health business (such as health foods and health devices) is successful, coupled with international expansion (in Southeast Asia and South Korea), the long-term valuation may reach 70-75 yuan.
5.2 Operational Recommendations
Entry/Increase Position: First Batch: 51-53 yuan (PE 18-19 times); Second Batch: 54-56 yuan (PE 19-20 times); Third Batch: 57-58 yuan (PE 20-21 times).
Strike Zone: The current share price is 56.23 yuan. If the P/E ratio drops to 18 times (the average P/E ratio in 2023 is 19.5 times), the reasonable valuation is 51-54 yuan.
“Phased Position Building Strategy”:
“Hold/Sell Signal”: First Wave: 60 yuan (PE 21x), Second Wave: 63 yuan (PE 22x), Third Wave: 65 yuan (PE 23x).
“Reduce Threshold”: If the stock price breaks through 60 yuan and the RSI is > 70, or if revenue growth falls below 5% in Q3 2025, caution is advised.
“Phased Sell”:
“5.3 Key Risks”
“Policy Risk”: The centralized procurement policy may squeeze profits. The net profit margin of 11.86% in 2024 is lower than 16.8% in 2020.
“Market Risk”: Intensified competition from brands such as Tong Ren Tang and Pien Tze Huang may affect market share.
“R&D Failure”: R&D expenses in 2024 are expected to be 340 million yuan (1.1% of revenue). If innovative drugs or health products fail to meet expectations, long-term risks may be impacted.
Growth in the long term.
Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Overseas business accounts for less than 5%, but if internationalization accelerates, exchange rate fluctuations could impact profits.
Market Expansion Risks: Health products (such as toothpaste) should be wary of the impact of weak consumption on end-user sales.
5.4 Key Indicator Monitoring
Gross Profit Margin: Monitor for two consecutive quarters of decline (Gross Profit Margin was 27.9% in Q4 2024. If it falls below 25% in Q1 2025, be vigilant.
Operating Cash Flow: Net profit of 4.3 billion in 2024. If it is negative in Q2 2025, it could expose capital chain risks.
Accounts Receivable Turnover: 4.1 times/year in Q4 2024. If it falls below 3 times/year, be wary of deteriorating collection capabilities.
Inventory Turnover: 3.5 times/year in Q4 2024. If it falls below 3 times/year for two consecutive quarters, there may be inventory overstocking.
Net Profit Growth Rate: If the growth rate falls below 5% in Q2 2025, evaluate the effectiveness of strategic execution.
- Final Executive Summary Summary
Key Viewpoint:
As a leader in the Traditional Chinese Medicine industry, Yunnan Baiyao is expected to benefit from policy support and achieve 16.02% net profit growth in 2024, exceeding the industry average.
Current Valuation (PE The company’s earnings per share (E/P) ratio (E/P) is 20.43 times, lower than comparable companies (Tong Ren Tang at 28.54 times, Pian Zai Huang at 31.55 times), providing a safety margin.
Long-term focus is needed on the company’s comprehensive health strategy and innovative drug R&D progress. If successful, the company’s valuation could potentially reach 70-75 yuan.
Valuation Results:
Based on multiple models, the reasonable valuation range is 110-140 billion yuan. With a current market capitalization of 100.3 billion yuan, there is room for a 10-20% upward revision.
Investment Rating:
“Overweight” (based on the valuation safety margin and industry position, but caution should be taken regarding the risk of insufficient growth).
Target Price:
Short-term: 53-58 yuan
Medium-term: 60-65 yuan
Long-term: 70-75 yuan.
Note: Investment decisions should be made based on individual risk appetite. This analysis report does not constitute sole investment advice.
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